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Worst CS2 Cases to OpenApril 2026

These are the 10 weakest cases to open this month by expected value. Every container returns less than it costs on average, but the ones below are the furthest from break-even. Live Steam prices; numbers refresh every 15 minutes on the rankings page.

  1. #1Operation Bravo Case
    Operation Bravo Case
    Cost $96.70EV $29.92Profit chance 4.28%
    30.9%
  2. #2CS:GO Weapon Case
    CS:GO Weapon Case
    Cost $194.12EV $66.34Profit chance 12.52%
    34.2%
  3. #3Anubis Collection Package
    Anubis Collection Package
    Cost $2.88EV $1.07Profit chance 3.15%
    37.0%
  4. #4eSports 2013 Case
    eSports 2013 Case
    Cost $81.44EV $30.12Profit chance 4.45%
    37.0%
  5. #5X-Ray P250 Package
    X-Ray P250 Package
    Cost $2.65EV $1.08Profit chance 3.80%
    40.8%
  6. #6Operation Riptide Case
    Operation Riptide Case
    Cost $19.80EV $8.12Profit chance 7.10%
    41.0%
  7. #7Fracture Case
    Fracture Case
    Cost $3.41EV $1.41Profit chance 4.72%
    41.4%
  8. #8Dreams & Nightmares Case
    Dreams & Nightmares Case
    Cost $4.46EV $1.90Profit chance 4.21%
    42.6%
  9. #9Operation Breakout Weapon Case
    Operation Breakout Weapon Case
    Cost $14.54EV $6.33Profit chance 4.14%
    43.5%
  10. #10Spectrum 2 Case
    Spectrum 2 Case
    Cost $6.99EV $3.13Profit chance 6.23%
    44.8%

How is CS2 case ROI calculated?

Every CS2 case has a fixed drop-odds profile published by Valve: 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.2% Classified, 0.64% Covert, and 0.26% Rare Special (knives and gloves). Multiply each tier's chance by the average price of the items it contains, apply the wear-distribution math from the item's float range, blend in the flat 10% StatTrak chance on non-glove drops, and you get the expected value per open. Divide that by the container plus key cost and you get ROI. Full tier breakdown on the drop rates page.

Why does this list change every month?

Prices move. Case prices on Steam float with supply (discontinued cases get scarcer, active drops stay cheap), while the skins inside appreciate or depreciate based on meta shifts, tournament rotations, and collection popularity. A case that opens at break-even one month can sit 15% negative the next. This ranking snapshots the best and worst right now; the live rankings update every 15 minutes if you want to check before you buy.

Try before you spend

Want to see these odds play out without real money? The case simulator uses the exact probabilities and live prices to show what a single open returns. Or compare opening vs trading up with the profitable trade-up finder, which ranks contracts by expected profit across the same markets.

See live rankings →

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