CS2 Drop Rates

In September 2017, Perfect World (Valve's Chinese partner) published CS:GO case opening odds on csgo.com.cn to comply with China's loot box disclosure laws. Community-tracked openings in the millions have matched these numbers, and they remain the same in CS2. The odds below apply to every CS2 case opening, whether you open cases in-game on Steam or use a free CS2 case opening simulator to test your luck without spending money.

The 1:5 Rule

Each rarity tier is 5x rarer than the one below it. Rare Special items (knives, gloves) are at a 2:5 ratio relative to Covert. No pity system — every CS2 case opening has the same odds regardless of how many cases you've opened before.

Weapon Case Drop Rates

Standard CS2 weapon cases have 5 rarity tiers. Every case from the original CS:GO Weapon Case through the latest releases uses these same odds. These are the only drop rates Valve has officially disclosed:

Each weapon case costs $2.49 for the key plus the case price on the Steam Community Market. You can check current CS2 case prices and calculate the total cost of opening any number of cases with our CS2 case calculator.

Knife and Glove Odds

Knives and gloves sit in the Rare Special (gold) tier at 0.26% — one knife or glove per ~385 case openings on average. Within that 0.26%, every knife/glove skin in the case's rare pool has an equal chance. If the case has 50 rare pool items, each individual knife skin is a 0.0052% chance (1 in ~19,230). For a StatTrak knife, multiply by the 10% StatTrak roll: 0.00052% (1 in ~192,300) for one specific StatTrak knife skin.

StatTrak™ Odds

Flat 10% chance on any drop from Mil-Spec up through knives. The StatTrak roll happens after the item is picked, not as a separate pool. StatTrak knife/glove = 0.026% (1 in 3,850). StatTrak does not apply to souvenir items — souvenir packages have their own Souvenir tag instead.

Souvenir Package Drop Rates

Souvenir packages drop during CS2 Major tournaments and contain souvenir-tagged skins from map collections. They have 6 rarity tiers (one more than weapon cases), making their top-tier items about 25x rarer than a Covert from a weapon case:

Sticker, Patch & Autograph Capsule Drop Rates

Sticker capsules, patch capsules, and autograph capsules all use 4 rarity tiers. These capsules don't require a key to open. The same rates apply to graffiti boxes, music kit boxes, and collectible pins capsules:

Armory Collection Drop Rates

Armory weapon collections (added with the CS2 Armory update) use 5 tiers starting from Industrial Grade instead of Mil-Spec. The probabilities are renormalized since there's no Consumer Grade tier or Rare Special pool:

Only weapon case odds were officially disclosed by Valve. Souvenir, capsule, and armory rates are community-derived using the same 1:5 rule.

Wear Distribution

Wear is a separate float roll, independent of rarity. When you open a CS2 case, the game picks a random float value within the skin's float range, which determines the wear condition. Approximate rates from community data:

• Factory New — ~3%
• Minimal Wear — ~24%
• Field-Tested — ~33%
• Well-Worn — ~24%
• Battle-Scarred — ~16%

Varies per skin depending on its float range. Skins with a narrow float range (e.g. 0.00–0.08) will always be Factory New.

CS2 Case Opening Cost

Every CS2 weapon case requires a $2.49 USD key to open, plus the case itself from the Steam Community Market. Case prices range from a few cents for older CS:GO-era cases to several dollars for newer releases. Some capsules (sticker, patch, autograph) don't require keys and cost only the capsule price. Use the free case and key calculator to see exactly how much it costs to open any combination of CS2 cases and capsules in 160+ currencies.

Test These Odds

Want to see these drop rates in action? Our free CS2 case opening simulator lets you open any CS2 or CS:GO case with the real drop rates above — no Steam account or money needed. Track your session stats, see how many openings it takes to hit a knife, and get a feel for the odds before buying cases on Steam.

Source

Perfect World / csgo.com.cn, September 11, 2017. Published under China's Ministry of Culture loot box probability disclosure requirement.

• Counter-Strike Wiki — Weapon Case
• PCGamesN — CS:GO case odds