Drop Rates
Drop rates are confirmed by Valve. Individual item probabilities are calculated by dividing the tier chance equally among items in that tier. Learn more
Items
AWP
Asiimov
AUG
Chameleon
AK-47
Redline
P90
Trigon
Nova
Antique
FAMAS
Sergeant
MAC-10
Heat
USP-S
Guardian
SG 553
Pulse
Tec-9
Sandstorm
UMP-45
Corporal
Negev
Terrain
MAG-7
Heaven Guard
Special Items
★ Karambit
Crimson Web
★ M9 Bayonet
Crimson Web
★ Karambit
Boreal Forest
★ Karambit
Case Hardened
★ Gut Knife
Crimson Web
★ M9 Bayonet
Boreal Forest
★ Karambit
Stained
★ Karambit
Blue Steel
★ Karambit
Fade
★ Gut Knife
Safari Mesh
★ M9 Bayonet
Case Hardened
★ Bayonet
Crimson Web
★ Karambit
Night
★ Flip Knife
Forest DDPAT
★ Karambit
★ Flip Knife
Urban Masked
★ Karambit
Slaughter
★ M9 Bayonet
Fade
★ M9 Bayonet
Slaughter
★ Flip Knife
Crimson Web
★ M9 Bayonet
★ M9 Bayonet
Scorched
★ M9 Bayonet
Safari Mesh
★ Karambit
Forest DDPAT
★ M9 Bayonet
Blue Steel
★ M9 Bayonet
Night
★ Bayonet
Blue Steel
★ Karambit
Scorched
★ Bayonet
Boreal Forest
★ Karambit
Urban Masked
★ Karambit
Safari Mesh
★ M9 Bayonet
Stained
★ M9 Bayonet
Urban Masked
★ Bayonet
Case Hardened
★ Bayonet
Fade
★ Bayonet
Urban Masked
★ Flip Knife
Safari Mesh
★ Bayonet
Slaughter
★ Bayonet
Night
★ M9 Bayonet
Forest DDPAT
★ Bayonet
Forest DDPAT
★ Bayonet
Safari Mesh
★ Bayonet
Stained
★ Flip Knife
Night
★ Gut Knife
Scorched
★ Gut Knife
Night
★ Flip Knife
Slaughter
★ Flip Knife
Fade
★ Flip Knife
Case Hardened
★ Flip Knife
Stained
★ Flip Knife
Blue Steel
★ Gut Knife
Boreal Forest
★ Flip Knife
Boreal Forest
★ Gut Knife
Stained
★ Bayonet
★ Gut Knife
Urban Masked
★ Gut Knife
Case Hardened
★ Gut Knife
Blue Steel
★ Flip Knife
Scorched
★ Bayonet
Scorched
★ Gut Knife
Forest DDPAT
★ Flip Knife
★ Gut Knife
Slaughter
★ Gut Knife
Fade
★ Gut Knife
★ Karambit
Crimson Web
★ M9 Bayonet
Crimson Web
★ Gut Knife
Crimson Web
★ Bayonet
Crimson Web
★ Flip Knife
Crimson Web
★ Karambit
Boreal Forest
★ M9 Bayonet
Boreal Forest
★ Gut Knife
Boreal Forest
★ Bayonet
Boreal Forest
★ Flip Knife
Boreal Forest
★ Karambit
Case Hardened
★ M9 Bayonet
Case Hardened
★ Gut Knife
Case Hardened
★ Bayonet
Case Hardened
★ Flip Knife
Case Hardened
★ Karambit
Stained
★ M9 Bayonet
Stained
★ Gut Knife
Stained
★ Bayonet
Stained
★ Flip Knife
Stained
★ Karambit
Blue Steel
★ M9 Bayonet
Blue Steel
★ Gut Knife
Blue Steel
★ Bayonet
Blue Steel
★ Flip Knife
Blue Steel
★ Karambit
Fade
★ M9 Bayonet
Fade
★ Gut Knife
Fade
★ Bayonet
Fade
★ Flip Knife
Fade
★ Karambit
Safari Mesh
★ M9 Bayonet
Safari Mesh
★ Gut Knife
Safari Mesh
★ Bayonet
Safari Mesh
★ Flip Knife
Safari Mesh
★ Karambit
Night
★ M9 Bayonet
Night
★ Gut Knife
Night
★ Bayonet
Night
★ Flip Knife
Night
★ Karambit
Forest DDPAT
★ M9 Bayonet
Forest DDPAT
★ Gut Knife
Forest DDPAT
★ Bayonet
Forest DDPAT
★ Flip Knife
Forest DDPAT
★ Karambit
★ M9 Bayonet
★ Gut Knife
★ Bayonet
★ Flip Knife
★ Karambit
Urban Masked
★ M9 Bayonet
Urban Masked
★ Gut Knife
Urban Masked
★ Bayonet
Urban Masked
★ Flip Knife
Urban Masked
★ Karambit
Slaughter
★ M9 Bayonet
Slaughter
★ Gut Knife
Slaughter
★ Bayonet
Slaughter
★ Flip Knife
Slaughter
★ Karambit
Scorched
★ M9 Bayonet
Scorched
★ Gut Knife
Scorched
★ Bayonet
Scorched
★ Flip Knife
Scorched
About the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
The Operation Phoenix Weapon Case is a CS2 weapon case released in Feb 2014. It contains 78 weapon skins across 5 rarity tiers, plus a rare special pool of knives and gloves. Each opening costs the case price plus a $2.49 key.
Mil-Spec Grade items drop 79.9% of the time. Special items are the rarest at 0.26% — roughly 1 in 385. StatTrak versions have a 10% chance on each drop.
Notable drops include ★ Karambit | Crimson Web ($50,000), ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web ($50,000), and ★ Karambit | Boreal Forest ($4,400).
Drop Rates
5 rarity tiers, ranging from Mil-Spec Grade (79.9%) down to Special (0.26%).
- Mil-Spec Grade79.9%
- Restricted16.0%
- Classified3.20%
- Covert0.64%
- Special0.26%
Each item within a rarity tier has an equal chance of dropping.
Simulate This Weapon Case
Unbox the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case for free in our CS2 case simulator. No Steam account or real money needed.
Classic mode plays the reel animation with an optional auto-open toggle for continuous openings. Bulk mode can simulate up to millions of openings at once with a results heatmap.
Calculate Your Unboxing Cost
Each Operation Phoenix Weapon Case needs a $2.49 key on top of the case price. Use the case calculator to set a quantity, see the total in 160+ currencies, and send your plan to the simulator.


